But if India already has enough domestic buyers for its GSec, why does it want more foreign investors?
Who are the major holders in India’s GSec market?
Why foreign investors matter
According to Kumar Rajagopalan, vice-president and country head (India) at global consultancy firm Dexian, GSec sit at the heart of the financial system with their yields serving as a benchmark for pricing loans and bonds across the economy.
“A deeper and more liquid government bond market improves pricing, and helps create a more efficient benchmark yield curve, which benefits capital markets more broadly,” he told Business Standard.
The first step, Rajagopalan said, is to build deeper, more diversified and globally integrated bond markets. “Foreign investors are anticipated to bring new ways of assessing risk, different investment horizons and trading models, which are expected to enhance liquidity and improve price discovery,” he added.
Finance ministry also said recently that a broader investor base can reduce dependence on a few large domestic institutions and make the market more resilient.
This is also the rationale behind India’s push for inclusion in global bond indices. Indian government bonds entered JPMorgan’s Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets in 2024 and were later included in FTSE Russell’s Emerging Markets Government Bond Index. Policymakers are now hoping to strengthen India’s case for inclusion in Bloomberg’s Global Aggregate Index. According to market estimates, inclusion in Bloomberg’s flagship benchmark could eventually attract around $25 billion of inflows.
What has been holding foreign investors back?
Market experts say the biggest hurdle is currency risk. “Investors continue to look at returns in dollar, euro, or yen terms and therefore face significant exposure to foreign exchange fluctuations irrespective of how attractive the yield on Indian bonds might appear,” Rajagopalan said.
This concern has become more pronounced as the rupee has faced pressure over the past year. The currency touched a record closing low of 96.86 against the US dollar on May 20 before recovering somewhat. It closed at 95.27 per dollar on Wednesday, June 10.
A foreign investor may earn an attractive yield on an Indian government bond, but a weakening rupee can erode a significant portion of those returns.
“As the returns on debt securities are comparatively lower, any tax incidence further accentuates the challenges,” he said.
Barclays said the tax changes improve the attractiveness of India’s real yields and remove a structural barrier to bond index inclusion. SBI economists have similarly argued that the reforms could boost demand for government bonds, improve liquidity in longer-tenor securities and lower borrowing costs over time.
Opening the door, but not too wide
According to Rajagopalan, the country does not need foreign investors to dominate its government bond market. What it needs is a broader mix of investors that can improve liquidity and market efficiency while keeping domestic institutions at the centre. He says foreign ownership of around 8-15 per cent over the next decade would strike a reasonable balance.