RIL Q4FY26 results preview
Mukesh Ambani-owned Reliance Industries (RIL) is likely to report a flattish March quarter (Q4FY26) results, with weakness in the oil-to-chemicals (O2C) business and muted growth in the retail segment offsetting gains in telecom segment, analysts said.
At the consolidated level, brokerages largely peg revenue in the range of ₹2.7 trillion to ₹2.8 trillion, a rise of up to 10 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y). Ebitda is seen at ₹44,000-45,000 crore, flat Y-o-Y, and net profit between ₹16,200 crore and ₹18,470 crore, a decline of up to 17 per cent Y-o-Y.
Ebitda margins are expected to contract sharply, reflecting pressure in the O2C segment.
RIL Q4 results date, time
Reliance Industries (RIL) is scheduled to announce its Q4FY26 results on Friday, April 24, 2026, with investors also tracking commentary on consumer businesses and capital allocation.
Key monitorables
Among the key things to watch out for, analysts said impact of rising oil prices on refining margins and petrochemical spreads, Jio’s Arpu (average revenue per user) growth trajectory and subscriber gains, and retail margin expansion amid continued investments would be on investors’ radar.
RIL Q4 results: What brokerages expect
Nomura
Global brokerage Nomura expects RIL’s O2C and retail businesses to see muted performance, even as Jio is seen posting steady numbers.
The brokerage estimates RIL’s March quarter consolidated Ebitda to come at ₹44,450 crore, down 3 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) and up just 1 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y).
This number, it said, would be dragged by O2C Ebitda of ₹15,100 crore in Q4FY26, down 9 per cent Q-o-Q and flat Y-o-Y due to headwinds from high crude oil premiums, higher freight costs, higher insurance premiums, increased LPG output as per government guidelines (impacting refinery GRMs), fuel retailing loss, and K-G gas being diverted to priority sectors.
“For the upstream segment, we estimate Ebitda of ₹4,680 crore, down 4 per cent Q-o-Q, due to a decline in production and higher maintenance expense,” it said.
That apart, Jio’s segment Ebitda is seen at ₹18,230 crore, up 3 per cent Q-o-Q and 15 per cent Y-o-Y, underpinned by a steady increase in end-of-period subscriber base by 8 million to 523 million subscribers; and modestly higher Arpu of ₹216/month (vs ₹213.7/month in Q3FY26).
Nomura cautioned that growth for Reliance Retail may remained slightly muted in Q4FY26, woth segment revenue seen at ₹91,050 crore (down 3 per cent Q-o-Q, but up 9 per cent Y-o-Y) and Ebitda of ₹6,830 crore (down 1 per cent Q-o-Q, but up 5 per cent Y-o-Y).
Overall, Nomura pegs RIL’s consolidate revenue at ₹2.84 trillion, up 7 per cent Q-o-Q and 9 per cent Y-o-Y, and net profit at ₹17,000 crore, down 9 per cent Q-o-Q and 12 per cent Y-o-Y.
ICICI Securities
ICICI Securities said earnings of RIL’s oil-to-chemical segment could drop 9 per cent Y-o-Y, while Retail segment earnings could improve by 4 per cent Y-o-Y as the business maintains its steady recovery.
Upstream business, it added, may show softness compared to last year, as slightly lower production and higher government share of petroleum profit may dent margins.
Overall, it pegs revenue at ₹2.84 trillion (up 7 per cent Q-o-Q/9 per cent Y-o-Y), Ebitda at ₹44,050 crore (down 4 per cent Q-o-Q/up 1 per cent Y-o-Y), and net profit at ₹16,200 crore (down 13 per cent Q-o-Q/17 per cent Y-o-Y).
PL Capital
PL Capital said RIL’s standalone Ebitda may decline to ₹14,150 crore, impacted by higher freight costs due to disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, elevated gas costs from lower availability for captive use, and weak petchem spreads, partly offset by stronger refining cracks amid elevated crude prices.
Segment-wise, it also expects Retail Ebitda to remain under pressure at ~₹6,870 crore, clocking a modest growth of ~5.6 per cent Y-o-Y.
“Jio’s Ebitda is expected to rise ~3.3 per cent Q-o-Q, supported by a ~1.0 per cent increase in Arpu to ₹215.8 and steady subscriber additions,” it said.
At the consolidated level, though, it sees Ebitda at ₹44,360 crore, yp 1.2 per cent Y-o-Y, but down 3.6 per cent Q-o-Q. Ebitda margin may contract 59 basis points Y-o-Y and around 120 bps Q-o-Q to 16.2 per cent.
Consolidated revenue is pegged at ₹2.74 trillion (up 4.9 per cent Y-o-Y/3.5 per cent Q-o-Q), and net profit at ₹16,980 crore (down 12.5 per cent Y-o-Y/8.9 per cent Q-o-Q).
Kotak Institutional Equities
Kotak Institutional Equities expects RIL’s consolidated Q4FY26 Ebitda to rise by ~2.7 per cent Y-o-Y (down 2.2 per cent Q-o-Q) to ₹45,018.9 crore. Ebitda margin, however, could slump 119 bps Y-o-Y and 179 bps Q-o-Q to 15.6 per cent.
It expects segment Ebitda to be flat Y-o-Y for O2C, decline by 9.2 per cent Y-o-Y for oil & gas, and rise by 4.2 per cent for Retail.
“We expect consolidated O2C Ebitda of ₹15,000 crore (flat Y-o-Y and down 8.9 per cent Q-o-Q) on energy market disruption due to the West Asia conflict; and E&P Ebitda to further decline 4.3 per cent Q-o-Q (down 9.2 per cent Y-o-Y) on lower KG-D6 volumes. For the retail business, we assume revenue growth of 12 per cent and consolidated Ebitda of ₹7000 crore,” it explained.
Overall, it sees consolidated revenue at ₹2.89 trillion (up 10.5 per cent Y-o-Y/9 per cent Q-o-Q), and net profit at ₹18,468.6 crore (down 4.8 per cent Y-o-Y/1 per cent Q-o-Q).