Brokerages tracked by Business Standard estimate Nykaa’s net profit at an average of ₹65.06 crore year-on-year (Y-o-Y) from ₹19.93 crore a year ago, up 226.44 per cent. However, sequentially, the profit after tax (PAT) is anticipated to decline 17 per cent from ₹78.8 crore in Q3FY26.
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What to expect from Nykaa’s Q4 results?
Motilal Oswal Financial Services: Analysts expect Nykaa’s revenue to grow 26 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹2,587.5 crore, with BPC likely delivering 24 per cent Y-o-Y growth in both gross merchandise value (GMV) and net sales value (NSV).
Overall, Q4 growth is likely to remain steady with margin normalisation post festivities. Contribution margins (CM) in beauty may expand 40 basis points (bps), though Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) margin may contract 40 bps Q-o-Q due to a high Q3 festive base and continued investments.
Fashion is expected to grow 33 per cent Y-o-Y in NSV, with early signs of recovery now visible; analysts see Ebitda near breakeven at -0.2 per cent of NSV.
Kotak Institutional Equities: The brokerage expects overall GMV and revenue growth of 27 per cent and 25 per cent Y-o-Y, respectively, primarily driven by BPC GMV/revenue growth of 25 per cent/24 per cent Y-o-Y and fashion business GMV/revenue growth of 32 per cent/36 per cent Y-o-Y.
BPC business GMV includes contributions from eB2B as well. Ebitda margin of 7.6 per cent is anticipated, implying margin expansion of 110 bps Y-o-Y. Operating leverage in BPC and lower losses in Fashion are expected to drive Y-o-Y margin expansion.
Ebitda increase is likely to flow through to the bottom line, resulting in a sharp 180 per cent Y-o-Y increase in net profit to ₹57.3 crore.
JM Financial Institutional Securities: The brokerage expects overall GMV for Q4FY26 to grow 27.9 per cent Y-o-Y, though decline 9.5 per cent Q-o-Q to ₹5,244.8 crore.
Within segments, core beauty and personal care (BPC) GMV is seen growing 26.9 per cent Y-o-Y but contracting 12.1 per cent Q-o-Q, while the B2B distribution platform — SuperStore by Nykaa eB2B and NykaaMan — is projected to grow 32 per cent Y-o-Y and 19.9 per cent Q-o-Q. The Fashion segment is expected to grow 28.5 per cent Y-o-Y but decline 9.7 per cent Q-o-Q.
Consolidated revenue is anticipated to grow 29.3 per cent Y-o-Y, declining 7.2 per cent Q-o-Q to ₹2,666 crore. Ebitda margins are expected to improve approximately 101 bps Y-o-Y, driven by CM improvement across BPC and Fashion, though they are seen contracting 52 bps Q-o-Q. Profit after tax is pegged at ₹64.4 crore for the quarter.
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